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On the occasion of India’s election tickets, the Indian market suddenly reversed, and the stock bonds were "three kills".
On June 3, Indian stocks rose together, and the Nifty stock index rose by more than 3.2%. Exaggerated buying caused a brokerage APP to down; the rupee rose about 0.4%, and the yield of printing bonds fell more than 3 basis points.
However, on the 4th, the "three kills" of Indian stock bonds suddenly appeared: the Sensex index and the Nifty Index both fell more than 7%, India’s 10 -year Treasury yields raised 10 basis points to 7.04%, India’s rupee’s exchange rate fell below 83.5Essence
India’s flagship subsidiary and port subsidiaries of the Indian Group fell more than 15%, and Adani Ports, a company of India’s company, fell 20%, setting the largest decline since February 2023; Indian National Bank fell 15%, in 2008, in 2008The biggest decline since October.New Delhi Stock Exchange
The Indian VIX panic index jumped 34%, the largest single -day increase since February 2022.
What happened to such a great reversal?
Why did India suddenly kill three murder?
Yesterday, the Indian market rose sharply and was mainly boosted by the market sentiment brought by the current Prime Minister Modi.
At that time, most polls showed that the league led by the Indian People’s Party (BJP) will win 350 to 400 seats in the election ended on Saturday, far exceeding the establishment of 272 seats required by the next government.
Winning with an overwhelming advantage will ensure the continuity of India’s current policy, it is expected to regain confidence in the market, and bring a broad rebound to the Indian stock market, bond market and foreign exchange market.
Many foreign -funded analysis agencies predict that once the election end, the Indian stock market will usher in a rebound on Monday, and the main stock index is expected to refresh the historical high.
Then, the early coupon of the Indian election today showed Modi’s lead, but the leading advantage was not as good as export polls, and the accident failed to win an overwhelming victory.
The latest votes show that among the 543 seats in the Indian People’s Court, the current National Democratic Alliance (NDA) where BJP is located is leading the 287 seats, far less than 351 in 2019 and 400 campaign slogans.In contrast, the Indian National Development Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.), headed by the Indian National Party, is currently leading in 187 seats.
Investors’ uncertainty about the results of the election has caused the Indian stock market to increase fluctuations, which may be the main reason for the Indian market.Guoabong Wealth Management
In response, Kranthi Bathini, a stock strategy director of the brokerage Wealthmills Securities, said NDA’s data is lower than expected.Therefore, we saw a profit, because investors were nervous.If this trend continues, we can see that the profit vomiting continues to expand.
Gaurav Dua, senior vice president and head of Sharekhan capital market strategy, said:
Obviously, the early results trend is not good for the market.But it is certain that as long as the BJP/NDA manifests the 272 seats required by the government, the overall decline in the market will only be temporary.
Investors’ expectations for "Modi 3.0"
The strength of the Indian economy is one reason why BJP was in a favorable position in polls.When Modi became the Prime Minister in 2014, India was the tenth largest economy in the world. Today, it is already the fifth largest economy.
So, what are the expectations of the Indian economy under the rule of "Modi 3.0"?
According to the 2024 campaign declaration of the Indian People’s Party led by Modi and the previous statement, the "Modi 3.0" may regard the following points as a priority of structural reform:
1) Increase the global footprint of "manufacturing in India", including pharmaceutical, medical equipment, electric vehicles, green energy and electronic products.
2) In terms of factor market reform, the Indian government may restart the reform of the labor market launched in 2019 to promote liberalization of factors such as land and labor.
3) Continue to emphasize energy transformation. The Indian government may continue to give priority to developing solar energy (including large -scale promotion of family roof solar energy), "green molecules" (hydrogen, ammonia, methanol) energy, battery and electric vehicles.Nuclear energy, especially small modular reactors, will also become a new focus.
4) Accelerate the modernization process of infrastructure, the Indian government may continue to invest in the construction of entities and digital infrastructure in large -scale large -scale investment, accelerate the construction and upgrade of highways, railways, airports, ports, etc., and use the "Indian stack" to build digital public infrastructure to promote finance to promote financePratt & Pitiated and Credit.
How about the "Big Infrastructure" in the Indian version?
It is generally believed that if Modi is successfully re -elected and India is expected to usher in a new round of large -scale infrastructure boom, railway, highways, and aviation will continue to become the top priority.
During the past two terms of the Modi government, the Indian highway has been extended by 60%, and the mileage of four -lane and above highways has increased significantly.In March of this year, after the election line took effect, the highway project approved in the first quarter slowed down, but as the results of the election were released, the number of approved items was expected to rise from July.
Yogesh Kumar Jain, managing director of PNC Infratech Co., Ltd., said at the investor conference call at the end of last month that the industry is expected to rise after the election, and a large number of projects will be approved in fiscal 2025.
In terms of railway, India introduced a modern semi -high -speed train "Van Dedbalat" to increase the number of passengers significantly.According to government plans, by 2030, the number of trains will increase from 90 to 800, and will launch the "Wande Crown Boat".
During the term of Modi, the Indian aviation industry also showed an upward trend. Many small cities were included in the route network, and the airport was also modernized.It is reported that the Indian Ministry of Aviation is formulating a plan to transform airports into regional international hubs to provide one -stop connectivity services for designated areas worldwide.
After the election, the new government budget became a new focus?
As the election is nearing the end, Nomura believes that market attention points will be transferred to the final budget proposed by the new government, especially whether or not to maintain or reduce the fiscal deficit goal.
The market will pay attention to whether the fiscal deficit target that accounts for 5.1%of GDP in the temporary budget will remain unchanged.
The excess dividend provided by the Bank of India (as about 0.4%of GDP) has brought unexpected fiscal revenue to the government, so this may affect the fiscal deficit target settings in the final budget.
Reform measures may also include expanding the direct taxation network, which involves tax policy reform, which may be designed to increase tax revenue or make the tax system more fair and effective.
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This article does not constitute personal investment suggestions, does not represent platform views, the market has risks, and investment needs to be cautiousKolkata Stocks. Please judge and decide independently.Udabur Stock
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